Portland is in an interesting position this year. A real shot at the playoffs, with expectations of growth, all the while fielding young talent and expiring contracts.
But as many have pointed out, Portland has a glut of talent, and while Paul Allen has shown willingness to pay for expensive teams that win, at some point you have to come to grips with the fact that you can't have eight players on the floor at once.
In light of this, I am going to run a series through the first few months of the season simply titled "Consolidating", where each time I take a look at a potential mid-season trade that would consolidate our roster and perhaps clear up some of the contract mystery that surrounds next year's off-season.
A Sunny Mid-Season Trade
This particular idea has been one I've kicked around for the last six months or so, and it involves perennial contender and all-around great guy Steve Nash. Just as Portland is in a unique situation this season, Phoenix is as well.
The Suns are going to be fighting tooth and nail for a top-half playoff seed, and it seems unlikely that they will be serious contenders for a ring, possibly exiting first round again this year.
A lot of the team's value is also locked up in players who are on their way down, at speeds that vary from player to player.
Shaq has been bottoming out like a seagull that's lost its wings midflight, but Steve Nash has been mostly successful at putting off his aging in a league dominated by young athletes.
These two players represent a lot of the value on the Suns roster, making it difficult for them to improve the team without either A) trading one or both, or B) taking a trip to the lottery.
This problem is compounded by the fact that Amare is a beast of a player, and if they take their trip to the lottery it will be in about two years, when they should be capitalizing on Amare's prime, not contending for the #1 pick.
Thus it leaves Steve Kerr with little choice but to gracefully let Nash and Shaq exit, getting as much value and building blocks as he can back.
Consequently, that happens to be exactly what Portland has to offer.
It is unclear if Phoenix would be most interested in value or capspace, but the good news is that Portland can provide both:
Value:
Travis Outlaw
Steve Blake
Channing Frye/Ike Diogu
2 First Round Picks over the next 4 drafts
for
Steve Nash
Capspace:
Raef Lafrentz
Travis Outlaw
Jerryd Bayless
Ike Diogu
1 First Round or 2 Second Round picks
for
Steve Nash
Boris Diaw
The thing both of these trades have in common is that they consolidate Portland's talent without hamstringing our ability to dominate in the future.
You can expect anywhere from two to four more superstar type seasons out of Nash before he has to be relegated to a bench role, and Diaw is at least a wash for Outlaw at age 26.
Both of these trades also give Phoenix what they desperately need right now: the ability to retool without taking a trip to the lottery. By having multiple first round picks AND young talent AND more capspace, they have many options, including trading up in the draft, trading away for another superstar, or drafting many prospects and growing their own "Portland Project" type team.
All the while they capitalize on Amare's prime and remain competitive.
From the Portland perspective though, these trades have almost no downside. Both get rid of a lot of the "contract questions" that will have to be answered at the end of this season by trading them away for value. Portland also gets the best player in the deal.
With either of these trades, I will go out on a limb and claim that Portland would have a legit shot at a ring this season. As in eight months from now. Wouldn't that be something, to start next season with the raising of a new banner?
In fact I think that Nash's ability and experience could easily guide Portland into contention for the next three years, after which the experience and talent of the rest of Portland's team could propel Portland into contention for the following decade.
This trade is literally a formula for instant contention that would make Portland a ring contender for at least 12 years.
Nash, as I touched on before, would also bring experience with his talent, and would greatly increase the development of both Sergio Rodriguez, who has a bit of Nash in him, and Jerryd Bayless.
The one thing that must be addressed is defensive liability. Nash has always been considered a poor on-the-ball defender, (though he certainly knows how to create turnovers and take a charge).
However, this trade allows a lot of pressure to come off of Webster and Batum, allowing them to really morph into star-caliber defenders without the worry of being a liability. I also am confident in McMillian's ability to improve Nash's defensive effort.
I don't think there's many ways Portland could say no to this trade, and I think Phoenix would have to think long and hard before turning down an offer like this, especially if they don't appear to be a real contender this year.
So if Pritchard is really considering consolidating this season, I don't think he can afford to not be talking with Kerr about a trade that both teams could benefit from.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Consolidating: A Sunny Mid-Season Trade
Posted by Unknown at 11:05 AM 0 comments
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Preseason: Game 2
In many ways this was not as much of a loss for the players as it was for McMillian. And by loss, I don't mean that he's keeping score.
After the half, you could almost feel that McMillian didn't care at all about the final outcome of the game, he was truly using it as scouting material. Which while excellent for the head coach, was not the most exciting time for fans.
It didn't help either that Sergio had an impressive six turnovers on ten assists. That's right, a .6 turnover to assist ratio. If this had been a regular season game, fans would quickly lament the absence of Brandon Roy, who never seems to fail at gluing the team together.
Despite languishing a bit on defense and failing to take the ball up strong a couple of times, Oden had an impressive second outing, and his rebounding really came into play. NBA refs tend to give the benefit to the player that makes a strong move; on Tuesday, that was Oden and on Wednesday, it was not.
The last thought I'll throw out there has to do with Outlaw and Webster. First, Outlaw is going to get unfairly criticized for this game. Yes, his shooting was abysmal, as was his shot selection. I would invite others to take note of the fact though that he played almost half his minutes at center, something you will never see happen during the regular season.
Webster also is very obviously the starting man right now. His play on Tuesday showed a confidence and demeanor that screams "start me", and he played very well with the first unit.
Fernandez played very well, although he was hindered slightly by having players around him that couldn't finish as Aldridge or Webster did, and several plays which he was a part of on Wednesday that didn't convert, would have on Tuesday.
But overall, the game was a great barometer for the team in unusual lineups, and I'm sure McMillian will view the game as a positive thing.
Posted by Unknown at 3:23 PM 0 comments
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Preseason: Game 1
It is difficult to describe how incredible this game truly was for those who weren't there. Portland didn't just win, they commanded.
The box score of 110-81 was more than a record, it was a statement.
The game started out slow, yet even so Portland was quick to get Greg's jitters out, and he quickly forced 3 fouls onto Spencer Hawes within the first 6 minutes. While there were about three calls during the game that were highly questionable, the refs also made some pretty iffy calls against the Kings, and it seemed that they were just calling a really tight game.
But "bad" calls from the refs would not be the story tonight. That's what a great team does. They dominate their opponent so well that they don't just take the other team out of the game, they take the officials out as well.
Rudy Fernandez is the real deal. He's the Hispanola Pistola himself, and boy oh boy, that was the LOUDEST 6 point and 5 assists I've ever seen in my life. Rudy had three seperate plays where I literally jumped out of my seat and shouted: "What?!" This guy reminded me in a lot of ways of Scottie Pippen, although his defense was not at Pippen level.
Rudy's defense was however very, very good, as was Sergio's. Sergio was beaten a few times, but that's what PGs do. Overall, he played his game well.
And speaking of defense, Portland completely controlled this game through defense. Sacramento was held to 29% FG shooting on the game, and I heard the 24 second buzzer ring no less than four times during their possessions over the course of the game.
It doesn't matter if Sacramento was a team in rebuild mode, holding them to 29% with 10 blocks is incredible.
Overall, the game was epic. And I can't wait for tommorrow.
Posted by Unknown at 11:45 PM 0 comments
Blazer Pre-Season Starts Today
Today is the start of the preseason for much of the league, and the Blazers kick it off by hosting the Sacramento Kings.
This will be the first actual game for many of the teams prospects, and I will be attending with a summary after the game.
Posted by Unknown at 3:09 AM 0 comments